You want me to fold AA pre-flop?
While it may sound like a crazy and unorthodox thing to do, there is a time when you need to fold AA. While you are never likely to fold it in any situation in a cash game, there is a time when you have to let the hand go in either a SNG or a MTT. It is a rare time, but sometimes surviving is better than risking your stack.
Sooner or later you are going to be in a SNG tournament or a MTT and you are going to be sitting somewhere from the button to the BB and you are going to have multiple players that are pushed all in ahead of you. If you are looking at a stack where you are covered by most or all of the players that have already pushed, you are going to have to let this hand go. The time to do this of course is when you are on the bubble. It may be difficult to do, but if you want to make the money, this is a golden opportunity to slide right in there with absolutely no risk.
Let’s say that there are 6 people left in the tourney (of a SNG) or there are only 2 positions left to go for the money in a MTT and you are on the button. Everyone has started the tournament with $2,000 in chips and you are sitting at $1,200 and you are in the BB. Under the gun pushes with a short stack of $1,000 and next position immediately pushes all in with $4,000 in chips. The next player also pushes in and has $2,100 and the button also pushes and has $2,400 in chips. If you double up, you would be looking at $5,800 in chips, but you have to get through 4 hands to survive.
Before you rush and just throw those chips in there, start to break down the hand and really figure out where you stand. In most cases, the short stack is going to be sitting on some type of pair. The big stack will more than likely be looking for isolation and would have two high cards or a pocket pair. The third and fourth players in almost certainly have a pocket pair. Best case scenario, you are looking at three pocket pairs and AK or AQs.
While you are still the favorite on the poker table, your percentages go dramatically down every time someone else puts in their chips. You are not going up against only one hand here, you have to beat all of them in order to be alive. For arguments sake, let’s assume that they all have a pocket pair. At pre-flop, you now have 8 cards that can beat you in the deck. That means that you are actually a severe underdog to the rest of table as any one of those 8 cards can beat you and send you to the rail.
While the ‘technical odds’ have you much higher, AA will really only hold up about 70-80% of the time. In this situation, you are better off dropping the hand and letting other players get eliminated. You can actually make the money right there if the big stack wins, but either way, you are going to be a lot closer to the money and in no risk of being eliminated.
This is not an easy play to make as most people will rush to get their chips in the pot here. However, if you have the discipline, you are must better laying down the hand and letting everyone else go to war. We all know you will get sick to your stomach if the AA holds up, but you can be assured that in most scenarios, it is more likely to go down that it is to win that hand. Take solace in knowing that you made the right call.
Tags:
MTT, Online Poker, Poker, Poker Games, Pre Flop, SNG
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